About that 50% Rasmussen Approval Rating

by The Red Pen –

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Cheeto Benito is excited because a single pollster says that exactly half of America approves of him. For some reason he thinks this is higher than Obama’s numbers. Actually, on June 17th, 2009, Obama’s approval was at 56% according to the same pollster, Rasmussen.

You can read more detail on why the Predisent is full of shit (again), but here’s the take-away:

  • This is likely a blip
  • 30% of the country really thinks he’s doing well. If that drops below 25%, he’s cratering
  • 40% have hated him from the start. If that goes over 50%, his supporters are going to be completely marginalized
  • The squishy middle has him at 50/50, according to Rasmussen, but the fundamentals show a failed leader with little hope of generating widespread support

Anyone who’s caught my previous diaries knows that I only follow Rasmussen. Countrary to Lord Dampnut’s claim Rasmussen is not a particularly good pollster. 538 rates them a C- and finds them having a 5% Republican “house lean.” Applying that, Trump’s approval is really 45%, but there’s a much more important story in the Rasmussen numbers: strong approval and disapproval.

Rasmussen calculates a partisan net approval; that is strong approval minus strong disapproval. By that measure, he’s at -11%, which is pretty good for him. He’s been hovering around -15% for weeks. For comparison, Obama was at +5% by this measure on June 17th, 2009.

The strong approval has basically bottomed out at the 27% crazification factor. Should it break through that floor, then Trump is in really bad shape. It fluctuates up — it’s currently at 31% — based on current events and polling noise. So while Rasmussen’s latest number has half the country approving of him, only 31% of us are really committed to that opinion.

What about the strong disapproval?  That’s been fluctuating around the mid 40s. Right now it’s at 42%, which is lower than it’s been. It hit 47% early this month. That means we’re closing in on half the country really thinking that Trump sucks. In the context of a 50% disapproval rate, this means that over 80% of the people who disapprove of Trump are very firm in that opinion. If you look at the Rasmussen data, you’ll see that there’s a band of about 10% of the sample who might shift their opinion to positive if Trump starts doing better. What’s more, is that the 40% strong disapproval also seems to be a floor.

 

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos