Bizarre & Disturbing. Subtropical Storm Alex Forms in Atlantic, Hurricane Pali in Pacific in Jan

by FishOutofWater –

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Hurricane Pali Tues Jan 12, 2016 near EQUATOR SW of Hawaii. Pali was the earliest hurricane to form in the central & eastern Pacific.

To make the weather even weirder, a subtropical storm, Alex, just formed in the Atlantic…in January. Water temperatures would normally be too low to support development of a tropical storm except for the very cold temperatures aloft. Very cold temperatures persist into the stratosphere above Alex. It’s weird, really weird, how the lower atmosphere (troposphere) is so thick above Alex and how the lower stratosphere is so cold. One of the weird effects of increasing greenhouse gases is the cooling of the lower stratosphere. MIT professor Kerry Emanuel found that the cooling of the transition layer between the troposphere and stratosphere has had a larger impact on increasing the intensity of Atlantic hurricanes than warming sea surface temperatures. Perhaps that has something to do with the bizarre formation of subtropical storm Alex in January.

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Subtropical storm Alex has formed in January the Atlantic south of the Azores islands. Winds of about 60 miles per hour are forecast to increase to near hurricane strength. This does not bode well for 2016.

This weather is bizarre and disturbing.

SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012016
1100 PM AST WED JAN 13 2016

Evening satellite imagery indicates that Alex continues to generate
a complex of curved convective bands, and an eye has been trying to
form inside the innermost band.  Satellite intensity estimates are
55-65 kt from TAFB and 55 kt from SAB.  In addition, recent ASCAT-B
data showed winds of 50 kt about 30 n mi southeast of the center.
Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt,
and this could be a little conservative.  Even though Alex has
strengthened, the system is still underneath an upper-level trough,
and it has not yet developed the upper-level outflow characteristic
of a tropical cyclone.

Alex has continued to turn toward the left and the initial motion
is now 035/15.  The cyclone is expected to turn northward during
the next 12-24 hours due to the influence of a large extratropical
low over the northwestern Atlantic.  Alex is expected to turn more
northwestward on the northeast side of this low after 48 hours,
with this motion continuing until the two system merge between
72-96 hours.  The new forecast track is very similar to the
previous track, and it calls for Alex to pass near or over the
Azores in about 36 hours.

 

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos