Ipsos/Reuters: “Clinton Solid Lead in Early Voting.” Hillary Leads Trump 15% in Early Vote. 95% WIN
by floridageorge –
Things are looking good, people. Don’t let media noise get to you. We are winning this thing.
With 11 days to go before the U.S. presidential election, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by 15 percentage points among early voters surveyed in the past two weeks, according to the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project.
Though data is not available for all early voting states, Clinton enjoys an edge in swing states such as Ohio and Arizona and in Republican Party strongholds such as Georgia and Texas.An estimated 19 million Americans have voted so far in the election, according to the University of Florida’s United States Election Project, accounting for as much as 20 percent of the electorate.
Overall, Clinton remained on track to win a majority of votes in the Electoral College, the Reuters/Ipsos survey showed.
Having so many ballots locked down before the Nov. 8 election is good news for the Clinton campaign.
Damn, I have to get used to Arizona being called a “swing state” now.
(Within the context of the “States of the Nation” project) early voting data for Florida and North Carolina was not yet available this week. In Ohio, Clinton led Trump by double digits among early voters. The project’s broader polling suggests the state is deadlocked between the two candidates.
In Arizona, Clinton also was solidly ahead among early voters. In the past month, Arizona has gradually moved from a solid Trump state to a marginal Clinton state, although it is still too close to call, according to the project results.
Even in Texas, where Trump enjoys a sizable lead, Clinton has a double-digit edge among early voters, according to project results.
THE REUTERS/IPSOS ESTIMATE OF TURNOUT
Winning the White House depends as much on who comes out to vote as which candidate they prefer. Each week, we poll more than 15,000 people, factor in likely turnout, then run millions of simulations to see how voting would play out in the Electoral College. This week, we project Clinton will win at least 278 electoral votes and Trump at least 174, and our simulation shows Clinton’s chance of winning is about 95%.
SCENARIO THE REUTERS/IPSOS ESTIMATE OF TURNOUT
In this scenario: Currently, Reuters/Ipsos estimates overall turnout at around 60%, although that rate varies among different demographic groups. Minority turnout, for example, is expected to be about 43%, while about 59% of African-American women and 69% of White men are projected to cast ballots.
Clinton’s chance of winning is more than 95%, by a margin of about 100 electoral votes.
Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos