McConnell Knows the Handwriting is on the Wall in Favor of the Iran Nuclear Pact. Donnelly is a Yes

by Meteor Blades –

Mitch McConnell, Roy Blunt, John Barrasso, John Thune, John Cornyn

With more than half of Senate Democrats now declared in favor of the Iran nuclear agreement, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has conceded that he’s unlikely to get enough votes to reject it under the Nuclear Agreement Review Act. Only his acknowledgment is new. When the act was passed three months ago, it was obvious to most close observers that Republicans would have a devil of a time getting enough votes to sustain an override. And so it has been:

Obama has “a great likelihood of success,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said in his home state of Kentucky this week—giving public voice to what other Republicans have acknowledged in private. “I hope we can defeat it, but the procedure is obviously stacked in the president’s favor.” […]”It’s not easy to override a president’s veto when the president is so committed to getting this done, and really the White House is fighting very hard for every vote in Congress,” former Democrat-turned-independent Sen. Joe Lieberman, who is helping marshal opposition, said in an interview Tuesday. But Lieberman said there were still enough undecided votes to get to two-thirds, and “we’re working hard on them.”

That “stacked procedure” isn’t something new, just the Senate standard. Last spring Congress passed and Obama signed the Nuclear Agreement Review Act, giving it the ability to assess and approve or reject an agreement with Iran. As usual, anything Obama supports is destined to be opposed by Republicans, and as we move closer to Sept. 17, when the 60-day review period expires, not a single GOP senator has stepped forward to support the agreement. Nor is any of them likely to do so.But, given the threat of a Democratic filibuster, it will take 60 votes to pass a resolution of disapproval of the agreement hammered out with Iran during 20 months of negotiations. McConnell can probably collect those 60 votes, although even that’s not certain. A disapproval resolution would, however, inevitably face a veto from the president. He needs the votes of only 34 Democratic senators to sustain that veto in the face of a Senate effort to override it.

Four Democratic senators declared their intentions on the Iran agreement Tuesday and one has declared today. One, Sen. Bob Menendez of New Jersey, said he is opposed. Four others, Sheldon Whitehouse and Jack Reed of Rhode Island, Mazie Hirono of Hawaii and Joe Donnelly of Indiana say they will support the agreement when it comes up for a vote next month.

That brings the tally of Senate supporters of the agreement to 24, according to an ongoingwhip count by The Hill. Six more Democrats are leaning yes. Fourteen remain undecided. And while there are some likely foes of the agreement among those 14, Sen. Maria Cantwell (WA), Sen. Ed Markey (MA), Sen. Debbie Stabenow (MI), Sen. Barbara Mikulski (MD) and Sen. Patty Murray (WA) all seem likely to favor it. If those five do decide in favor of the agreement and all the yes “leaners” actually say yes, President Obama would have more than his 34 votes to block any override.

Join us in urging senators and representatives to support the agreement and vote no on any resolution of disapproval.

In the House, 143 votes are needed to sustain a veto. The Hill now counts 56 of the 188 House Democrats in favor of the Iran agreement, with 12 opposing it. Fourteen are categorized as leaning yes, three leaning no and a whopping 57 undecided. That leaves 47 still to be accounted for.

While that tally may seem to put in doubt the outcome in the House, in fact, the vast majority of those undecided and unaccounted for Democrats will most certainly come out in favor of the agreement.

In May, soon after the vote approving the review act, 151 Democratic representatives signed the Schakowsky-Doggett-Price letter of support for the negotiations with Iran, eight more than the 143 needed to block an override.

Saying, however, that negotiations are the way to go and supporting the agreement that comes out of negotiations are two different matters. Letter signer David Scott opposes the Iran agreement and signers Loretta Sanchez, Ted Lieu and Brad Ashford are possible noes.
But it’s unlikely that all the representatives who didn’t sign the letter will choose to go against the Democratic leadership to sustain a veto on a matter a president from their own party has worked so assiduously to accomplish.

Here is The Hill‘s count of 56 House Democrats who so far have announced they favor the agreement [Steve Cohen was added to this tally after he announced this afternoon]:

Rep. Don Beyer (VA); Rep. Earl Blumenauer (OR); Rep. Michael Capuano (MA); Rep. Lois Capps (CA); Rep. André Carson (IN); Rep. Katherine Clark (MA); Rep. Jim Clyburn (SC); Rep. Steve Cohen (TN); Rep. Gerry Connolly (VA); Rep. John Conyers (MI); Rep. Joe Courtney (CT); Rep. Danny Davis (IL); Rep. Peter DeFazio (OR); Rep. Lloyd Doggett (TX); Rep. Donna Edwards (MD); Rep. Keith Ellison (MN); Rep. Anna Eshoo (CA); Rep. Sam Farr (CA); Rep. John Garamendi (CA); Rep. Luis Gutiérrez (IL); Rep. Raúl Grijalva (AZ); Rep. Denny Heck (WA); Rep. Jim Himes (CT); Rep. Rubén Hinojosa (TX); Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (GA) Rep. Hank Johnson (GA); Rep. Dan Kildee (MI); Rep. John Larson (CT); Rep. Barbara Lee (CA); Rep. Sandy Levin (MI); Rep. Stephen Lynch (MA); Rep. Doris Matsui (CA); Rep. Betty McCollum (MN); Rep. Jim McDermott (WA); Rep. Jim McGovern (MA); Rep. Gwen Moore (WI); Rep. Seth Moulton (MA); Rep. Beto O’Rourke (TX); Rep. Donald Payne, Jr. (NJ); Rep. Nancy Pelosi (CA); Rep. Mark Pocan (WI); Rep. David Price (NC);  Rep. Jan Schakowsky (IL); Rep. Adam Schiff (CA); Rep. Louise Slaughter (NY); Rep. Jackie Speier (CA); Rep. Eric Swalwell (CA); Rep. Mark Takano (CA); Rep. Mike Thompson (CA); Rep. Niki Tsongas (MA); Rep. Chris Van Hollen (MD); Rep. Tim Walz (MN); Rep. Maxine Waters (CA); Rep. Peter Welch (VT); Rep. John Yarmuth (KY).

These 12 Democratic representatives say they will oppose the agreement:

Rep. Ted Deutch (FL); Rep. Eliot Engel (NY); Rep. Alcee Hastings (FL); Rep. Steve Israel (NY); Rep. Nita Lowey (NY); Rep. Grace Meng (NY); Rep. Donald Norcross (N.J.); Rep. Kathleen Rice (NY); Rep. David Scott (GA); Rep. Brad Sherman (CA); Rep. Albio Sires (NJ); Rep. Juan Vargas (CA).

These three lean no:

Reps. Brad Ashford (NE), Alan Grayson (FL) and Rep. Loretta Sanchez (CA).

These 24 senators favor the agreement:

Sen. Tammy Baldwin (WI); Sen. Sherrod Brown (OH); Sen. Barbara Boxer (CA); Sen. Joe Donnelly (IN); Sen. Dick Durbin (IL); Sen. Dianne Feinstein (CA); Sen. Al Franken (MN); Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (NY); Sen. Martin Heinrich (NM); Sen. Mazie Hirono (HI); Sen. Tim Kaine (VA); Sen. Amy Klobuchar (MN); Sen. Angus King (I-ME); Sen. Patrick Leahy (VT); Sen. Chris Murphy (CT); Sen. Bill Nelson (FL); Sen. Jack Reed (RI); Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT); Sen. Brian Schatz (HI); Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (NH); Sen. Jon Tester (MT) Sen. Tom Udall (NM); Sen. Elizabeth Warren (MA); Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (RI).

These two oppose it: Sen. Chuck Schumer (NY) and Sen. Bob Menendez (NJ).

These six senators are “leaning yes“: Sen. Richard Blumenthal (CT); Sen. Tom Carper (DE); Sen. Joe Manchin (WV); Sen. Claire McCaskill (MO); Sen. Jeff Merkley (OR) and Sen. Harry Reid (NV).

These 14 Democrats as undecided/unclear: Sen. Michael Bennet (CO); Sen. Cory Booker (NJ); Sen. Maria Cantwell (WA); Sen. Ben Cardin (MD); Sen. Bob Casey (PA); Sen. Chris Coons (DE); Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (ND); Sen. Ed Markey (MA); Sen. Barbara Mikulski (MD); Sen. Patty Murray (WA); Sen. Gary Peters (MI); Sen. Debbie Stabenow (MI); Sen. Mark Warner (VA) and Sen. Ron Wyden (OR).

The Hill counts 33 senators in both parties as definite foes of the agreement, with 23 “leaning no.”

 

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos

 

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Posted By: Keith

Writer, political junkie, rabid rock music fan, amateur gardener, astronomer and ornithologist, cook extraordinaire, sipper of fine wine and, more than once, the funniest guy in the room.

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