Reuters Data Model Predicts A GOP POTUS in 2017–Here’s The Data They Forgot About

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A recent Reuters article uses some pretty compelling data to determine that the Republicans will, in fact, win the White House on Super Tuesday in 2016, ushering in yet another generation of soaring debt, unmitigated “discretionary (war) spending” and the eventual collapse of our economy. Actually, Reuters stopped at who would win, the rest is based on history repeating itself.

To come to this conclusion, the Reuters data model relies on two — yes two — pieces of information:

Candidates from the same party as the outgoing president are three times less likely to win.

Reuters says that looking at polls right now is pointless, because the margin of error from today until election day is over 8 percent, which is true. Everyone knows that polls right now mean very little, other than sound bite trends and dropout prospects. If you disregard the polls and look at the raw data, the incumbent party will lose.

Reuters admits it has a limited amount of data to go by; about 100 years, or 25 elections. To make their model look more viable and accurate, Reuters added another statistic. By gathering data from an unspecified number of elections in an unsourced number of countries going back an undetermined amount of time, Reuters has determined that:

Outgoing presidents with an approval rating below 55 percent leave their party’s candidate little to no chance of winning.

President Obama is currently polling at 45 percent. If you combine that with the lower likelihood of an incumbent’s successor winning, you have little doubt left. Republicans own the White House in 2017.

And that’s the ballgame. Those two things and those two things alone are enough to convince the hack that wrote this piece for Reuters that the Democrats have no chance of retaining power over the executive branch. Does that seem a little bit light on content? It does, doesn’t it. That’s because it’s missing quite a bit of that pesky little thing called reality.

Here are some of the things this model isn’t taking into account:

  • The Republican controlled Congress has accomplished next to nothing. Since being given the opportunity to govern by the American people in 2014, the GOP has shown that it can’t get along with itself, never mind reach across the aisle in critical times to get the important stuff done.
  • The Republican answer to the problems they create is always the same: Defund. Defund everything, or hold the economy and our future hostage if they don’t get their way.
  • The Republican party has been taken over by crazy people. Hey, it was Peter King (R-NY) who said it, not me. Being a good Republican is no longer about smaller government, fiscal responsibility and moderate social conservatism, it’s about Jesus running the country from the pages of Leviticus, hating the poor, idolizing billionaires, rampant racism and a loaded weapon under every shirt in America.
  • Normal people can read. They have TVs, phones and tablets. The insanity of the GOP isn’t a secret.
  • Democrats own 251 electoral votes the minute the polls open. The Republicans start with 106. The race to 270 isn’t even close.
  • Democrats show up to vote in Presidential elections, especially when they feel something important is on the line, in record numbers. 2016 may see the first woman elected President. It may also see an unpresedented number of marijuana legalization referendums. Does that mean Democrats are stoners? No, it means we like tax revenue. Yeah, and OK, maybe a few of us like to burn one every now and then.
  • George W. Bush is still fresh in our minds. It doesn’t matter how much the party hardliners try to change history, the voting public remembers the lies, they remember the deceit. They remember sending soldiers off to die for profit and the economy in free-fall. They remember that buffoon standing there at the end not being able to take any bit of responsibility for the mayhem he caused.
  • Last but not least, the Republican primary field is a joke. Donald Trump is a bloviating blowhard. Ben Carson is an Independent turned Republican because he wants to sell books. Carly Fiorina just really needs a job. Then you have the career politicians, none of whom will be able to stand at a podium next to Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders and look anything but foolish.

Sorry, Reuters. These are but a few of the reasons your “data model” lacks legitimacy. The outcome from the start was about as uncertain as flipping a two-headed coin, considering these were the same people who predicted a Romney win right before Barack Obama took home one of the easiest electoral landslides in American election history.

 

Reprinted with permission from Addicting Info

 

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