Sanders campaign aims for 40% in NY? Strategy would effectively clinch nomination for Clinton.
by First Amendment –
If this really is the Sanders campaign strategy in NY and it plays out this way, any small chance he had to win the nomination would be over. 40% of the vote in NY would be a total disaster for the Sanders campaign. He needs to win NY state by at least 13% or more or at least win it to drive a comeback campaign narrative.
I’m wondering if the Sanders campaign is driving this particular narrative because, their internal polling of NY isn’t looking very good and they’re setting a number they feel is achievable? This also could be the reason the Sanders campaign is pushing so hard for a debate in NY.
Let’s say it ends up 60 – 40 Clinton in NY, toss in Sanders wins of 60 – 40 in WI and 80 – 20 in WY prior to New York, Clinton’s lead would be +251 pledged delegates. I worked up this three state example using the Democratic Delegate Calculator.
This would leave us with 19 races to go and 1400 delegates remaining. Sanders would need roughly 59% of those delegates. The race would effectively be over.
There is no “credibility threshold” victory in NY. The Sanders campaign needs to win NY and preferably by a large margin, unless the Sanders campaign is banking on their implausible superdelegate strategy to save the day.
Clinton needs to win her home state decisively to demonstrate there is enthusiasm boosting her campaign ahead of a bruising general election. The most recent statewide poll, conducted by Emerson College, showed her leading Sanders 71 percent to 23 percent in New York. Sanders’ allies said the goal for the primary is to eat into Clinton’s delegate take by winning at least 40 percent of the vote — a percentage they cite as a “credibility threshold.” And they shrug off the daunting poll numbers, arguing that they have begun every primary contest trailing Clinton by seemingly insurmountable margins.
Nate Cohn has an excellent article and model of the remaining races. Their model estimates Mrs. Clinton would win 54% of the delegates the rest of the way.
Please read the entire article, as it’s very well done.
Our model estimates that Mrs. Clinton would win around 54 percent of the remaining delegates, not including nonstate contests like Puerto Rico. She loses in a bunch of predominantly white, working-class states where Mr. Sanders is hoping to fare well: Wisconsin, Wyoming, North Dakota, Kentucky, Oregon, Indiana and West Virginia. But she holds on in the affluent and diverse states along the coasts. Mr. Sanders will need to win these states — and probably by a comfortable margin — to overtake her delegate lead.
It’s important to note that this type of a model is not a prediction. It merely supposes that the rest of the campaign follows the same demographic patterns of the first half. And sometimes voters go another way. The model put Mrs. Clinton on track for a big win in Michigan, which she ultimately lost. After Michigan, the same approach predicted a close race in demographically similar Ohio, where she got a big win.
Just this last week, Mr. Sanders beat the expectations of this model in all five caucus states (but underperformed by more in Arizona). There’s no reason he can’t do it again. But this approach does give a broad sense of what’s left, and it doesn’t suggest a great opportunity for Mr. Sanders.
Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos