Pollster.com Just Moved Election for Pres and Senate Strongly out of GOP Chance. Wang now at ~100%

by floridageorge – Ok, here is the latest Pollster.com topline.  They are incredibly bullish on Hillary winning the presidency as of just a minute ago, also on the Senate switching hands: Trump is dropping like a rock.  Now down to a 1.3% chance of winning, while Hillary Clinton has surged all the way to 98.6%.  Both of these measures are new highs and lows for Pollster.com Projections (for Hillary and Trump, respectively.) Pollster.com gets into the calculations of how they reached these findings to come up with their election forecast, here: FORECAST PRESIDENT SENATE Possible Electoral Vote Counts When you vote, you don’t elect the president: You tell your state’s electoral-college electors how to vote. In most states, all electors vote with the state’s popular opinion. If 51 percent of voters in California choose Hillary Clinton, all 55 of California’s electors will vote for Clinton — and none will vote for Donald Trump....

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Sam Wang: People Are Too Freaked Out Not To Vote

by Dartagnan – That’s pretty much what he says. In a New York Times piece analyzing why Trump’s level of support has never fallen below 41% on average, Sam Wang, founder of the Princeton Election Consortium, points out that this election is so polarized there is really no one of any consequence left to persuade.  And because both sides are equally horrified of the other, we on the Clinton side can all breathe a little easier after the events of the last 24 hours or so. For nearly forty years, until 1992, the difference between the minimum and maximum levels of a Presidential candidate’s average range of support during the campaign season fluctuated about 17%. Since 1996 that fluctuation has been cut in half, to 8%. And now, Trump’s support, for example, has fluctuated only 4%.  The reason is an utterly polarized electorate, with particularly polarizing candidates this cycle. As Wang...

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