The Democratic Nomination: Let’s Do The Math

by barehl – I keep running into comments by people who seem somewhat math challenged and this includes some rather prolific posters and commenters. Now, this isn’t anything complicated; it’s math that I expected that everyone should have learned in High School. But, perhaps it is more complicated than I thought. I’ll run through it in detail. First of all, let’s skip the (unpledged) super delegates. In 2008, Clinton began the race with most of them. However, when Obama finished with 97 more pledged delegates, fifty of the super delegates switched from Clinton to Obama. So, they weren’t a factor. It’s reasonable to assume that the same thing would happen this time as well. In other words, even though Clinton has most of super delegates, I believe some would switch to Bernie if he got more pledged delegates than Hillary. So, those of you who are pushing the sour grapes notion that Clinton will win with...

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Can Democrats Take Back The Senate?

by Bill Scher – Most political eyeballs are understandably transfixed on the presidential race. But there is much drama brewing in the race for the Senate. And while the unhinged Republican presidential primary may give an impression of a nation gone mad, the way vulnerable Republican Senate incumbents are struggling to hold on to their seats is a reminder that the nation is not in a right-wing mood. The Senate is within reach for the Democrats in 2016. They need to net four seats (five if they lost the White House, but doubtful they would net five seats while losing the White House). As of today, six Republican-held seats (and one Democrat-held seat) are deemed “toss-ups.” All the incumbent Republicans in the toss-up states are first-termers representing blue states who were elected the Tea Party-infused 2010 midterm. They’ve never won statewide in a presidential election year where Democratic turnout is...

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Clinton Forecast to Win Big Primary States of N.Y, Pa, and MD

by Skywatch – The Bing Political Index is predicting that Hillary Clinton will win the vast majority of the remaining primary contests in April, including the delegate rich states of New York, Pennsylvania and Maryland. She is also predicted to win the Connecticut and Delaware primaries. New York Primary-247 Delegates Latest poll by Fox News has Clinton beating Sanders by double digits in both New York and Pennsylvania. She leads Sanders by a margin of 53-37 in New York. Clinton’s clearly the pick among women (61-30 percent) and non-whites (56-37 percent). Men give the edge to Sanders by just 47-43 percent.  Sanders is currently losing among every demographic group with the exception of men and voters under age 45. Clinton holds a 27-point advantage among voters 45 and over (58-31 percent). She leads by a whopping 19 percent in New York City and is also leading in the suburbs and surrounding areas. Pennsylvania Primary-189 Delegates...

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Assessing the Candidates’ Overall Truthfulness

by Bidabunch – The folks at the Star Tribune put together the Truth-O-Meter as compiled by Politifact: With primaries completed this week in Florida and Ohio, as well as in Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina, we thought it was a good time to look at the remaining candidates trying to capture their party’s nomination for president. In the accompanying chart, you’ll see a snapshot of where their Truth-O-Meter scorecards stood as of this week using PolitiFact’s system of rating the accuracy of statements made. Star Tribune While I wish our candidates’ statements were rated 100% True/Mostly True and at least Half True, look at the comparisons to the Republicans! Wowzers! Dividing them up in columns of True (True, Mostly True and Half Truth) and False (Mostly False, False and Pants on Fire): Clinton: True 72;  False 28 Sanders: True 70; False 31 Trump:  True 23; False 78 Cruz:  True 35; False 65...

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Not Supporting Hillary or Bernie in November = President Trump or Cruz!

by AZAFVET – I turn 70 this week and in my years of experience in the political arena this year is one of the most unusual I’ve experienced.   I was at the 1968 Democratic National Convention. I was a Democratic Precinct Committeeman in a Republican Illinois precinct in 1972 winning my precinct for George McGovern.  I have worked in Democratic congressional campaigns.  Now my support comes many by contributing to my favorite candidate.  One thing that I have done consistently is to support my party’s candidate admittedly sometimes holding my nose but supporting them non the less. Each election was heralded as  the “most important in our nations history” they were not of course, everything remained the same except for the 1980 election when President Carter was defeated by Ronald Reagan thus starting the decline of the middle class, the trickle down theory, the war on unions, the war on...

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And it’s Here! Nate Silver’s 538 Primary Forecasts!

by naderhader – I’ve been waiting on this analysis with bated breath, and it’s finally here… FiveThirtyEight.com ‘s 2016 Primary Forecasts! Nate Silver (formerly known here as Poblano) and his compatriots at 538 are known for rational, data backed analysis of all kinds of stuff, but what I always head for is the political writing and forecasting. Nate accurately predicted outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 election, and his fame exploded from there. He’s awesome. This year, the predictions are very exciting, especially for polling nerds and political junkies (I’m looking at YOU). I’ll soon cut to the chase, but wanted to make a note — these predictions are ‘polling plus’ predictions, and are snapshot predictions as well. They can and will change as polls inevitably tighten as we close in on the contests in Iowa and New Hampshire. Additionally, the models they came up with are very interesting, as...

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I Could Listen to President Bill Clinton Speak for Hours (VIDEOS)

by BlankBeat – Trump has nothing on President Bill Clinton. Bill gives me HOPE when I hear him speak. Trump uses fear. And hope must win. Star Wars may be more relevant now than ever before. As I said — I could listen to Bill Clinton speak for hours! He inspires me just as Hillary does. I want both of them back in the White House. And to be honest — my life was better in the 1990s. When Trump says “Make America Great Again” — well, America was great for a lot of Americans during the 1990s. 23 million new jobs, a balanced budget, and a surplus. Of course Republicans won’t give President Clinton credit — but all President’s deserve credit for the economy they presided over. All income levels grew under President Clinton because he invested in education, women, and children. As First Lady, Hillary helped create and pass the Children’s Health Insurance Program, giving 8 million children health insurance....

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