The GOP Nightmare Scenario

by Murfster35 –

Chairman of the Republican National Committee Reince Priebus flashes a thumbs up after gaveling the abbreviated first session of the Republican National Convention closed in Tampa, Fla., on Monday, Aug. 27, 2012. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

Feeling the heat there, big guy?

This is not going according to plan. After all, this was supposed to be the “Dream Team”, a field of Senators, Governors and former Governors that was supposed to be an abundance of qualified candidates to listen to in speeches and debates and to choose from. Granted, there were a smattering of wannabes, looking to inflate their egos and possible speech fees by running for President. And all of this abundance against an almost prohibitive front-runner on the Democratic side that they could demolish her by the legislative investigation process before they even got to the general election cycle.

But then, a couple of funny things happened on the way to the White House. The presumptive “damaged goods” on the Democratic side ended up having more spine and chops than they thought she would, and your vaunted Special Select House Committee on Benghazi came off more like a clutter of Inspector Clouseau’s than steely eyed Sam Spade’s, and the “wounded pigeon” started to look more and more like a soaring eagle. And then the other neutron bomb exploded onto the scene, Donald J Trump.

The 800 lb elephant in the room. The blowhard, the candidate wanna be, the cyclical threat. Nobody, including Reince and his merry band of freebooters ever thought he would ever actually leave his golden tower, his lucrative t.v. contract and go for it. But he did. And when he did, he went for it with a vengeance.  He came down his golden escalator, stepped up in front of the podium, and put Reince Priebus on notice. He set off an IED on the GOP road to the Presidency. He made it clear in the first 10 minutes that he was not your “normal” Presidential candidate. He came out with a scorched earth speech that announced to all that he was appealing to the basest elements of the Republican party. He excoriated undocumented immigrants as murderers, rapists and drug dealers, and promised solutions to problems that the base worried about. And the base went nuts. And he has gone on and on and on from there.

And here we are. Trump is at the top. And nobody is coming soon to displace him. Ben Carson tried, but somehow or other his Teflon didn’t work as well and some of the shit from his past stuck, and he’s on the way back down. Bush is still in Nowheresville USA, and Cruz and Rubio are bickering back and forth with each other to become the alternative, with no end in sight. And the Donald sits on top of Olympus, smiling down on the havoc he has created.

So, where do we go from here? The road forward is murky and dangerous. The obvious RNC hope is that an establishment candidate will somehow or other rise to the top, most likely either Bush or Kasich to take the Donald on head to head, and put him down like a sick dog. This is unlikely, in their support of Trump, Carson, Rubio and Cruz, the likely voter “base” of the primaries has shown their complete and utter disdain for another lying, piece of shit establishment candidate. At the same time, it appears unlikely that Trump, even once he gets into the delegate rich “winner take all” primaries can cobble together enough support to get the number of delegates needed to get to the nomination outright. So, where does that take us? To a brokered convention.

Actually, into the 1940’s a brokered convention was the norm, not the exception. Primaries were held, delegates were chosen, and then they showed up to the convention, listened to speeches and went into smoke filled back rooms and decided by bartering who would be the candidate. “MY delegate vote gets me what? O.K., let’s go.”

But what does that mean here and now. What it means is a mess. A brokered convention, especially if Trump goes in with the majority of delegates plays directly into his hands. After all, HE wrote “The Art of the Deal”, he is the specialist. This is what he lives for, going into a room, and laying down the terms to a group of people that he already knows are in a subservient position. This is his kill zone.

Jeb! and Kasich are toast. The obvious flow of the river is against them, The “base” doesn’t want another platitude spouting, business as usual “establishment” candidate promising the same empty bullshit. Rubio and Cruz are the alternates to Trump, but, unfortunately for them, they are both sitting U.S. Senators, with opinions and votes in their records that will be offensive to the rebellious base. And there is NO one in the field that has the killer instinct and negotiating skills to match the Donald.

The takeaway? This is going to be a long and bloody Republican primary, and if Trump can do well through the Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina primaries and go with strength into the “winner take all” primaries beyond don’t think that he can go into the Republican National Convention in a position of strength does so at their own peril. There is no one I can see on the horizon that can cobble together a strong enough coalition to topple him. We’ll see what happens.

 

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos